From the category archives:

Finance

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday signaled he is finished cutting interest rates for now and has turned his attention to concerns about inflation in the world’s foreign exchange markets in the wake of the U.S. dollar’s 16 percent decline against the Euro over the past year.  Speaking to the International Monetary Conference, Bernanke stated that, “For now, policy seems well positioned to promote moderate growth and price stability over time.  We will, of course, be watching the evolving situation closely and are prepared to act as needed to meet our dual mandate.”

• Observers called Bernanke’s statement a “strong defense of the dollar” and a sign that the Fed believes a weaker U.S. dollar would be detrimental.  Declines over the past year against the Euro and more recent oil price surges have increased fears of inflation. These fears are one reason the Fed is not expected to pare interest rates further at least through October.

• Bernanke called financial market conditions “strained” and reiterated that U.S. consumers face challenges from declining home prices and stricter mortgage and other lending standards, a weaker job market and higher energy costs.  He added that economic growth will remain limited until home prices and the housing market show clearer signs of stabilization.

 

Source CAlifornia Assoc. or Realtors (R)

 

A typical question our County Properties real estate agents are asked is"when should we buy now or wait until the end of the year for better home prices and mortgage rates." Lets look at the current market conditions and some different scenarios.

The big question is where inflation is headed? Some economic gurus suggest that the recent surge in energy prices will inevitably spill over into higher inflation, much as the oil shocks of the Y's sent prices of everything soaring. Others argue that (for a variety of reasons, including the fact that the U.S. economy uses about half as much energy per unit of GDP as it did 30 years ago), inflation won’t be a problem. (Your guess is as good as the best-paid economic analyst.)

To make your mortgage rate prediction, you need to know the inflation rate for 2006 because interest rates and inflation tend to move in the same direction. The reason is pretty simple. If inflation rises, that means a dollar of savings at the start of 2006 has less buying power by the end of the year. So if those bond buyers (again, the folks who ultimately supply the money for your mortgage) see inflation rising, they’re going to want more interest to make up for the loss in buying power of their dollars. In the 1970's, the worst part of the inflationary cycle pushed mortgage rates above 18 percent.

 The change of the fed rates usually effect 2nd trust deeds, mortgage rates, equitylines on homes, and credit card rates. Below is an historical chart of the prime rate.

Intended federal funds rate
Change and level, 2002 to present

Change
(basis points)

Date Increase Decrease Level
(percent)
2008
April 30 25 2.00
March 18 75 2.25
January 30 50 3.00
January 22 75 3.50
2007
December 11 25 4.25
October 31 25 4.50
September 18 50 4.75
2006
June 29 25 5.25
May 10 25 5.00
March 28 25 4.75
January 31 25 4.50
2005
December 13 25 4.25
November 1 25 4.00
September 20 25 3.75
August 9 25 3.50
June 30 25 3.25
May 3 25 3.00
March 22 25 2.75
February 2 25 2.50
2004
December 14 25 2.25
November 10 25 2.00
September 21 25 1.75
August 10 25 1.50
June 30 25 1.25
2003
June 25 25 1.00
2002
November 6 50 1.25

Two Federal Reserve policy-makers warned on Wednesday May 27, 2008 that interest rate increases might be needed before too long to curb inflation, even as the United States struggles with a weak economy.

The remarks solidified expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee has ended an aggressive rate-cutting campaign and could start to reverse its policy course late this year. 

As you can see with rise in oil prices the feds last look at changing rates was to not decrease and do a wait and see on increasing rates.

The following article explains the current market conditions San Diego and Riverside CA Housing Crisis Is Over 

Here is another article regarding the first time in many years since the soft market started California sales increased 2.5% in April. Below is a chart of the two counties that County Properties cover, showing the new medium prices for each city.

County/City/Area

Apr-08

Apr-07 Y-To-Y % Change
Riverside County $294,000.00 $410,000.00 -28.3%
Banning $217,500.00 $276,000.00 -21.2%
Beaumont $285,000.00 $368,000.00 -22.6%
Cathedral City $230,500.00 $335,500.00 -31.3%
Corona $394,000.00 $570,000.00 -30.9%
Desert Hot Springs $175,000.00 $288,000.00 -39.2%
Hemet $190,000.00 $319,500.00 -40.5%
Indio $292,500.00 $351,000.00 -16.7%
La Quinta $561,500.00 $583,000.00 -3.7%
Lake Elsinore $290,000.00 $410,750.00 -29.4%
Menifee $277,500.00 $390,000.00 -28.8%
Mira Loma $418,000.00 $542,500.00 -22.9%
Moreno Valley $235,000.00 $385,000.00 -39.0%
Murrieta $310,500.00 $465,000.00 -33.2%
Norco $520,000.00 $635,000.00 -18.1%
Palm Desert $353,000.00 $406,000.00 -13.1%
Palm Springs $240,000.00 $365,000.00 -34.2%
Perris $225,000.00 $362,500.00 -37.9%
Rancho Mirage $510,000.00 $527,000.00 -3.2%
Riverside $300,000.00 $410,000.00 -26.8%
San Jacinto $220,000.00 $340,000.00 -35.3%
Sun City $241,750.00 $339,250.00 -28.7%
Temecula $329,000.00 $459,000.00 -28.3%
Wildomar $327,000.00 $450,000.00 -27.3%
Winchester $329,000.00 $478,000.00 -31.2%
San Diego County $400,000.00 $495,000.00 -19.2%
Carlsbad $658,000.00 $635,000.00 3.6%
Chula Vista $379,500.00 $507,000.00 -25.1%
El Cajon $340,000.00 $426,000.00 -20.2%
Encinitas $600,000.00 $708,500.00 -15.3%
Escondido $350,227.00 $440,000.00 -20.4%
Fallbrook $497,500.00 $540,000.00 -7.9%
Imperial Beach $330,000.00 $465,000.00 -29.0%
La Jolla $820,000.00 $930,500.00 -11.9%
La Mesa $432,500.00 $443,500.00 -2.5%
Lakeside $375,000.00 $485,000.00 -22.7%
Lemon Grove $279,000.00 $420,000.00 -33.6%
Oceanside $357,000.00 $465,000.00 -23.2%
Poway $458,500.00 $537,500.00 -14.7%
Ramona $385,000.00 $535,000.00 -28.0%
San Diego $410,000.00 $480,000.00 -14.6%
San Marcos $436,750.00 $525,000.00 -16.8%
Santee $349,000.00 $413,500.00 -15.6%
Spring Valley $280,000.00 $460,000.00 -39.1%
Vista $351,250.00 $475,000.00 -26.1%

sources are California Assoc. of Realtors, and money magazine

This is the time to make your move, good deals are now getting multiple offers and our agents will help you get one into your next home. Call for counseling on for investing or a buying a home to live in now, while the market prices and interest rates are still low. Click Go to my website

Q-How long does it take for a property to be foreclosed in San Diego or Riverside CA?
A-Late on payments causes:
1. Day 1 Notice of Default is recorded by the bank
2. Day 14 Notice of Default must be mailed to borrower 10 days after recordation.
3. Day 91 Notice of Trustee’s Sale is recorded, published and mailed. (Lenders usually file 31 days before the sale because of an IRS notice requirement).
4. Day 115: Deadline to cure default (5 business days before Trustee’s sale).
5. Day 122: Trustee’s sale (Deadline to pay off loan is anytime before Trustee’s sale begins). Trustee’s sale is a foreclosure sale: the forced sale of a property at public auction (usually the court house steps) to satisfy the debt incurred from the substantially delinquent payments. The buyers at the court auction are required to have cashiers check for the full amount of the sales price, usually without inspection of the property,as is, inside unseen, high risk, usually the price goes thru a bidding up process toward market value.
6. After the court auction, if there are no bids, due to the loan being higher than the market value of the home, thr majority of foreclosures go back to the bank, if it does not sell.
7. When it goes to the bank, it will take an average of 1-2 months before it gets listed with a real estate and than you will see it listed on our website at County Properties.
8. Contact me, as your Realtor (R) I will help you to find the home your looking for at a good price.

Credit-scoring myths

by Arnie Levine on May 14, 2008

in Finance

Looking to buy a house? Make sure you know what will truly hurt and help your case with lenders — and don’t fall for the misinformation mortgage lenders can spread.

There’s a lot of misinformation being propagated about what does and doesn’t hurt your credit score, and much of it is coming from sources who should know better: mortgage lenders.

Now, let me say first that I’ve worked with several excellent lenders who really knew their stuff and kept up to date, not only on loan trends but on the information that’s available about credit scoring. That’s important, because the FICO credit score, in its various permutations, is used in three-quarters of all mortgage lending.

But what I heard from several lenders responding to my recent column, "8 big mortgage mistakes and how to avoid them," was the kind of bad advice that can cost you money and keep you from getting the best loans.

So if your mortgage broker gives you any of the following advice, take a tip from me: Find a new broker.

Closing accounts can help your credit score
No, no, no. For the umpteenth time: Closing accounts can never help your credit score, and may hurt it.

Every time I write this, I get more e-mail from people who say their mortgage lenders told them exactly the opposite. It’s true that having too many open accounts can hurt your score. But once you’ve opened the accounts, you’ve done the damage. You can’t repair it by shutting the account, and you may actually make things worse.

The credit score looks at the difference between your available credit and what you’re using. Shut down accounts, and your total available credit shrinks, making your balances loom larger, which typically hurts your score.

The score also tracks the length of your credit history. Shutting older accounts can also make your credit history look younger than it actually is, which can hurt your score.

Of course, credit scores aren’t the only thing lenders look at when making decisions. They typically consider other factors, such as your income, assets, employment history and credit limits. Mortgage lenders in particular might look at your total available credit and ask you to close a few accounts as a condition for getting a loan.

But if your goal is to improve your credit score, you generally shouldn’t close accounts in advance of such a request. Instead, pay down your credit card debt. That’s something that actually can improve your score.

Checking your FICO score can hurt your credit
Unfortunately, I heard this one from a mortgage broker who is otherwise pretty smart. He was confused about which type of inquiries hurt your score and which don’t.

Applying for new credit is generally what hurts your score. Ordering a copy of your own credit report or credit score doesn’t count. Those mass inquiries made by credit card lenders, who are trying to decide whether to send you an offer for a pre-approved card, also aren’t going to hurt you, either — unless you actually take them up on their offers.

If you want to minimize the damage from credit inquiries, make sure that when you shop for a mortgage you do so in a fairly short period of time. The FICO score treats multiple inquiries in a 45-day period as just one inquiry and ignores all inquiries made within 30 days prior to the day the score is computed.

For most people, one inquiry will generally knock no more than 5 points off a score (and scores typically run from 300 to 850, so that’s not a big percentage).

Credit counseling will hurt your score as much as a bankruptcy
The current FICO formula ignores any reference to credit counseling that may be in your file. That’s been true for the last three years, after researchers at Fair, Isaac, the company that created the FICO scoring system, noticed that people getting credit counseling didn’t default on their debts any more often than anyone else.

Your ability to get a loan could still be hurt by credit counseling, however. Your current lenders may report you as late, because you’re not paying what you originally owed or because your credit counselor isn’t sending your payments in on time. Late payments do hurt your credit score.

Lenders consider other factors besides credit scores in making their decisions, as well. The factors they look at can vary widely. Most want to know your income, for example. Some want to know how much savings you have or whether you’re a homeowner. Some will find credit counseling disturbing, while others see it as a good sign.

The mortgage lenders who don’t like credit counseling generally treat its enrollees the same as if they had filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy. Chapter 13 is the kind of bankruptcy that requires a repayment plan and is looked at somewhat more favorably than Chapter 7, which allows you to erase many of your debts. You might still be able to qualify for a loan from one of these lenders, although your interest rates will almost certainly be higher than if you had perfect credit.

If you plan to get a mortgage soon, and you’re not already behind on your debts, it’s probably smart to steer clear of credit counseling. If you’re already in trouble, however, a good credit counseling agency might be able to help you get back on track.

Your FICO isn’t the only score you need to check
This came from lenders who thought the FICO score is offered by only one of the three credit bureaus: Equifax.

In reality, all three of the bureaus offer FICO credit scores using the formula developed by Fair, Isaac, but they each give the scores a different name. At Equifax, the FICO is known as the Beacon credit score. At TransUnion, it’s called Empirica. At Experian, it goes by the unwieldy title of "Experian/Fair, Isaac Risk Model." Complicating matters further is that you’ll probably have three different scores from the three different bureaus, largely because the bureaus don’t all share the same data. One bureau may list more accounts for you than another, for example, and the differences (in types of accounts, payment histories, credit limits and balances) will be reflected in the score that bureau computes for you.

Because of those differences, it does make sense to pull and examine your credit reports from all three bureaus before you apply for a big loan like a mortgage. Many mortgage lenders take the middle score from the three bureaus when making their decisions, so fixing errors in all three reports before you shop for a loan is smart.

You can get all three of your FICO scores from myFico.com.

But the ways you improve your credit score are the same in any case: Correct errors. Pay your bills on time. Pay down your debt. And apply for credit sparingly.

County Properties has gone to great lengths to provide our homebuyers with the highest level of service available in every aspect of your home purchase. Over the years our sales team has closed homes with hundreds of different lenders.  In doing so, we have seen our homebuyers incur unnecessary costs by some of these lenders.  This is why we have selected a preferred lender for homebuyers to assist you by providing financing for your new home. 

You may ask yourself, why it is necessary that each homebuyer obtain final loan approval with a preferred lender?  This explanation may help in clarifying any questions you may have as a prospective homebuyer.

• PROFESSIONALISM:  The preferred lender is thoroughly pre-screened in the following areas:  financial stability, references, experience, number of financing programs available, ethics and fees.  We insist that our clients receive the most competitive fees / interest rates and are treated with honesty and integrity. 

• TIMING: When purchasing a new home there are crucial timetables that must be followed.  If the loan approvals are not issued in conjunction with our building timetables, it may prevent us from including in your home many of the “optional” selections you may have selected.  In addition, because many lenders are not familiar with new home construction, your decision to use a lender other than the preferred lender may result in delays in final delivery of your home.  This delay may also create moments of undue and undeserved stress and costs to you.

• ACCOUNTABILITY: If an approved lender does not treat you with ABSOLUTE respect, or if, due to their performance, they fail to meet specific deadlines or close the transaction in a timely manner, they stand to lose more than just your satisfaction.  They could also lose our future business.  For this reason, we are confident that out homebuyers will receive every extra consideration.

COSTS: The preferred lender has a proven track record. Often times when an outside lender is selected by a homebuyer many extra and costly burdens are placed on the escrow company to provide additional documentation to that lender.  Any costs for this additional documentation may be passed on to you.  We prescreen the preferred lender for overall loan costs and “junk fees”.  It is our goal that you receive the best loan program for your needs at the lowest of cost.  In addition, the preferred lender can provide you with long-term interest rate

Walls Street came out with the article below that spells out the national status of the current and future real estate market.

The Housing Crisis Is Over By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now. For more info click Wall Street Journal

Being a Real Estate broker for County Properties and home owner in San Diego, Riverside and Orange counties since 1983 I have experienced 3 real estate cycles. This current market price dropped well below the average drops in the past cycles due to over appreciation from demand and very liberal banking guide lines since the start of the new millennium (1999). A lot of the demand is backup even greater at this time, especially with low housing starts, population growth on a steady incline. We have the best weather in the country in these three counties with west coast shore lines within a short drive or ocean front locations.

There are finally better banking guidelines to make sure buyers can afford to make payments, and now better government programs including VA,FHA and CaHfa, etc. to help buyers get in with very little down payment. We are seeing seller paying most of the buyers closing costs. We are seeing multiple offers on many of the bank owned properties because they are now at affordable prices for buyers and low interest rates.

Potential indications for the trend to follow in the rest of the country. San Diego and Riverside counties in California are next. Prepare yourself for the changing market that is happening now. Call for counseling on for investing or a buying a home to live in now, while the market prices and interest rates are still low. Click Go to my website

cflogo San Diego and Riverside CA Housing Crisis Is Over

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday for the seventh straight time since September of last year. This makes the Prime interest rate a low 5%! Many experts believe that the Fed is done cutting interest rates and will begin a new watch-and-wait policy. This new policy is due – in part – to the fact that the first Stimulus Act rebate checks are hitting millions of mailboxes this week. The Fed hopes this money gives a boost in the arm to the economy.

They cut the federal funds rate by a quarter of a point to 2 percent on Wednesday, the latest – and possibly last – in a series of reductions aimed at staving off a recession and easing the credit crunch.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
• In September, when the Fed initiated the first of seven consecutive interest rate reductions, the federal funds rates stood at 3.25 percent.  The last time the rate was this low was in December 2004.
• In making the announcement, the Fed noted that, “The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity.”
• There was some speculation that the Fed was leaving the door open to additional rate cuts if inflation concerns become reality.  However, others speculate the Board may leave rates alone until the impact of its recent efforts become clearer.

If you’ve been taking a watch-and-wait approach with your own finances, now is the time to call and review your options.
Consider this: the Federal Reserve Board meets 11 times this year to review the health of the US economy and make adjustments if needed. Don’t you think you owe it to yourself to take just a few minutes and do the same with your own financial goals?
I want to ensure that you’re taking advantage of this unique market and not letting it pass you by. Here are just a few things to consider:
• Today’s tougher housing market means there are some great buys to be had if you’re looking to purchase. This is an especially friendly market for first-time home buyers.
• The government has temporarily increased FHA loan limits in many areas across the US. These government-insured loans are not FICO-score driven and require little to no down payment. Here’s the catch: these new limits expire at the end of the year, so you must act now.
• You really don’t want to play the waiting game if you are holding an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). That’s because there is nowhere for the rates to go but up from here, if we are truly at the end of the Fed’s cutting cycle.
Invest 10 minutes in your financial future. Call me today. Together we’ll review your situation. While the Fed takes a quick break from cutting to plan its next move, take advantage of the opportunity to do the same for yourself. I look forward to hearing from you!

U.S. LEADING INDEX UP SLIGHTLY AFTER FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHLY DECLINES
The U.S. leading index rose 1 percent in March following five straight months of declines, due largely to the ongoing credit crisis and a slumping housing market, according to the latest data released by the Conference Board Tuesday.
Vendor performance and favorable interest rates were positive forces on the index in March, offsetting the negative impact of higher unemployment claims, sagging building permits, and stock price data.

S&P statement and Bear Stearns Rescue, updates

by Arnie Levine on March 21, 2008

in Finance

S&P sees end to subprime mortgage writedowns

Standard & Poor’s said subprime write-downs for large financial institutions are likely past the halfway mark, but they could still hit $285 billion.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• S&P’s statement gave a boost to financial stocks and helped Wall Street indexes pare losses.
• The purging of bad loans in the subprime market through foreclosure or refinancing ultimately will strengthen everyone’s ability to obtain mortgages.
• Fewer foreclosures mean fewer vacant homes, which may make a neighborhood a more desirable place in which to live. That, in turn, could increase the demand for housing.

Bear Stearns Rescue Is `Finger in Dike,’ Scholars Say

With Bear Stearns Cos.’ rescue, the $200 billion subprime crisis joins a long history of government bailouts to preserve jobs, homes, and savings.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Bear Stearns failing would have reverberated well beyond the investment banking sector. Large investment bankers such as Bear Stearns provide much of the capital that eventually finds its way into the pool of money used to fund mortgage loans.
• Most investment bankers are heavily leveraged. That means they fund investments by borrowing. If they invest well, they can pay off debt and still make a profit. But if no one will lend to them, investment bankers can neither pay debt nor make investments. That combination can cause an institution to fail. Bear Stearns was not the only heavily leveraged investment bank. Many other large Wall Street firms also are dependent on the ability to borrow to survive, so a loss of confidence resulting from the failure of a major player could easily have brought down several others.
• The credit crunch, or consumers’ difficulty obtaining mortgage loans, is one of the greatest hindrances to a real estate market rebound. In recent months, even prospective buyers with good credit have had trouble securing a loan. If financial markets stabilize, that could help boost demand for housing.

Mortgage resets: Ignorance may be bliss,

by Arnie Levine on October 5, 2007

in Finance

Mortgage resets: Ignorance may be bliss, but it could mean a lot of pain for all the players in the subprime crisis when a record number of adjustable rate mortgages reset.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — About $50 billion in adjustable rate mortgages reset this month, driving interest rates up for many borderline borrowers. And despite efforts to raise awareness, it doesn’t look like anyone is really prepared for what’s to come.

"I don’t know if there’s anything much [borrowers] can do," said Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a publisher of mortgage related information. "Hopefully, they’ve been prudent about preparing for it, building a nest egg or refinancing the loan."

But most borrowers are likely to just scramble to pay the higher expenses – some of which will jump by 50 percent and come as a big surprise.

According to a survey conducted last month for the AFL-CIO by Peter D. Hart Research Associates, three quarters of borrowers have little clue about how much their payments will increase when their loans adjust. Nearly half don’t know how their loans actually reset.

"This survey shows that many homeowners simply are not prepared for the steep rise in mortgage payments that this market inflicts on ARM holders," John Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO, said in a press release.

When asked whether they were confident or worried about making their monthly mortgage payments over the next few years, 41 percent of homeowners whose adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) had already reset said they were worried. Only 18 percent of pre-reset borrowers were concerned.

The record round of resets has been getting a lot of attention across the board. Congress, the Bush administration, government agencies, regulators and community groups and lenders all have their own ideas on how to offer relief. Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, believes that borrowers are more informed than in the past, but he doesn’t see that knowledge translating into better results.

"The success rate for loan modifications is not improving much," said Zandi. "In September, defaults surged."

Zandi blamed the surge, in part, on the sheer number of borrowers seeking help; servicers who need to hire and train new loan counselors are unprepared for the volume.

And technical roadblocks to mortgage modifications are slow to being dismantled. Contractual obligations between servicers and investors who buy the loans can limit the options servicers may offer borrowers.

According to Michele Taylor, a community reinvestment organizer for the Chicago-based National Training and Information Center (NTIC), some investors stand to make less money if a loan is modified, so they’re not playing ball.

"We’re hearing from servicers, ‘Nothing can be done because the investor won’t allow it,’" she said. That occurs even when the same servicers have worked out favorable modifications for other borrowers.

Tax and accounting considerations are also hindering workouts. One initiative that could help is the Bush administration’s proposal to forgive taxes when mortgage principals are lowered. But any relief action as a result is unlikely to take place before October’s record round of resets.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, however. "We may be approaching a tipping point after which we’ll have more success with saving borrowers’ homes," said Zandi.

He thinks servicers may move toward giving ARM borrowers an extra three to five years of payments at initial low "teaser rates," giving them a little breathing room until home prices rebound. Unpaid interest could then be folded back into principals and loans refinanced.

NTIC is pushing for a similar freeze as part of its "Save the American Dream" campaign. It’s suggesting a two-year moratorium on resets.

But the mortgage situation can’t hope to improve until banks tighten lending practices, and it doesn’t look like they’re quite on track. This past summer, the Mortgage Bankers Association revealed that delinquency rates for loans made in 2006 were rising.

And a new report from investment bank, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, suggests that as conditions began to collapse during the first half of 2007, lenders still failed to vet borrowers carefully.

According to the report, lenders did not tighten underwriting standards until July or August, when the subprime crisis came to a head. As a result, delinquency rates for these most recent loans are even higher than those for 2005 and 2006.

With so many poorly underwritten loans, future delinquency rates and foreclosures could soar. And while October will be the peak year for resetting ARMs in 2007, new records will be set in early 2008; March will see more than $100 billion in resetting loans.

It could be a bumpy ride.

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